Nigeria Set for Fastest Economic Growth in Over a Decade as World Bank Raises 2026 Forecast to 4.4%
Nigeria’s economy is heading for its strongest expansion in more than ten years, according to a new forecast by the World Bank. The global lender now expects Africa’s largest economy to grow by 4.4 percent in 2026 and 2027, marking a major upgrade from its earlier projections.
The revised outlook appears in the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report. Notably, the new figures improve on the institution’s June estimates of 3.7 percent for 2026 and 3.8 percent for 2027. As a result, Nigeria now ranks among the fastest-growing major economies on the continent heading into 2026.
In 2025, Nigeria’s growth climbed to 4.2 percent. The World Bank links this progress to strong momentum in the services sector, especially finance and information and communication technology. At the same time, agriculture recorded a modest recovery, while local refining capacity helped Nigeria emerge as a net exporter of refined petroleum products.
Looking ahead, the bank expects these trends to deepen. It projects that services will continue to expand, farming output will rebound further, and non-oil industries will gain fresh speed. Together, these sectors should anchor the country’s next phase of growth and reduce long-standing dependence on crude exports.
Economic reforms also play a central role in the new forecast. According to the report, changes to the tax system and steady monetary policy already support business activity. More importantly, they help rebuild investor confidence and ease inflationary pressure across the economy.
In addition, higher domestic oil production should cushion the impact of softer global prices. That boost could strengthen government revenues and improve Nigeria’s external balance over the medium term.
However, the World Bank warned that strong numbers alone will not guarantee lasting progress. Nigeria introduced fiscal rules in 2007 to shield public finances from oil price swings. Yet weak institutions and inconsistent enforcement have limited their impact.
For this reason, current reforms now target deeper structural gaps. The bank stressed that Nigeria must strengthen public finance management, improve policy credibility, and widen opportunities across sectors to make growth durable and inclusive.
Beyond Nigeria, the report paints a cautiously optimistic picture of the global economy. Despite ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainty, global output continues to show resilience.
The World Bank projects worldwide growth of 2.6 percent in 2026, followed by 2.7 percent in 2027, both higher than earlier forecasts. Still, it urged countries to accelerate reforms and investment to protect long-term stability.
