China and India are set to dominate global economic expansion in 2026, accounting for more than 43% of worldwide real GDP growth, according to new forecast data from the International Monetary Fund. The projection comes as global growth remains resilient despite slower momentum in advanced economies and tighter financial conditions.
The IMF forecasts global real GDP growth of 3.1% in 2026, with emerging markets playing an increasingly decisive role in driving expansion. China alone is expected to contribute 26.6% of global growth, making it the single largest driver of the world economy. Although China’s growth rate has moderated compared to earlier decades, its vast economic size continues to give it unmatched global influence.
India follows as the second-largest contributor, with a projected 17% share of total global growth. Strong domestic demand, rapid population growth, and rising investment are expected to support India’s 6.2% expansion rate in 2026. Together, China and India will generate nearly half of all global economic growth, reinforcing Asia’s growing dominance.
Among advanced economies, the United States remains the largest single contributor, accounting for 9.9% of global growth. However, its share highlights a broader shift away from traditional economic power centers. Europe is forecast to contribute 9.5% of global growth, spread across major economies including Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. Aging populations, slower productivity gains, and restrictive monetary policies continue to limit expansion across the region.
When combined, the United States and the European Union are expected to deliver just 16% of total global growth in 2026, a sharp contrast to their historical leadership. As a result, economic momentum is increasingly concentrated in developing regions.
Regionally, the Asia-Pacific is projected to account for nearly 60% of total global GDP growth. In addition to China and India, countries such as Indonesia and Vietnam are expected to make significant contributions. North America follows with an 11.4% share, while Europe continues to lag behind.
Africa, home to several of the world’s fastest-growing economies, is forecast to contribute 7.7% of global growth. Nigeria and Egypt rank among the top 10 individual country contributors, reflecting the continent’s expanding workforce, rising consumption, and growing government investment. Ethiopia also remains a key driver within the region.
Overall, the IMF data points to a global economy increasingly powered by countries at earlier stages of development. Population growth, urbanization, and expanding consumer markets are reshaping the balance of economic power. As global investment and production continue to shift, emerging markets are set to define the pace and direction of growth in 2026 and beyond.
Top 10 Contributors to Global Real GDP Growth in 2026
| Rank | Country | Share of Global Growth |
| 1 | 🇨🇳 China | 26.6% |
| 2 | 🇮🇳 India | 17.0% |
| 3 | 🇺🇸 United States | 9.9% |
| 4 | 🇮🇩 Indonesia | 3.8% |
| 5 | 🇹🇷 Türkiye | 2.2% |
| 6 | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 1.7% |
| 7 | 🇪🇬 Egypt | 1.7% |
| 8 | 🇻🇳 Vietnam | 1.6% |
| 9 | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 1.5% |
| 10 | 🇳🇬 Nigeria | 1.5% |
